Friday, May 6, 2011

Oil Price Drop


Oil plunged nearly 9 percent to settle below $100 per barrel as mounting concerns about the U.S. economy triggered the biggest one-day percentage decline in more than two years.
Thursday's decline of $9.44 per barrel, or 8.6 percent, to $99.80 brings the week's loss for oil to $14.13, or 12.4 percent.
The last time crude prices were this low was March 16.
Gasoline prices in the Daytona Beach area have continued to inch higher this week, rising a penny on Thursday to an average of $3.95 a gallon for regular unleaded.
But industry analysts who spoke with the News-Journal said the downturn in crude oil prices, which have now declined four days in a row, should cause gas prices to start falling soon, possibly by this weekend.
"Gas prices should drop 15 cents to 20 cents per gallon in the next couple of days," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. in Winchester, Mass.
Besides the drop in crude oil prices, Lynch pointed to a sell-off in silver as another indicator that the gas price bubble has burst. Silver prices had gone so high that investors were starting to get skeptical.
"People started selling silver and they started selling everything, just like in the movie 'Trading Places.' When prices go up too high, people get worried that they will be left holding the bag," Lynch said.
Patrick DeHaan, a senior petroleum analyst with Minnesota-based GasBuddy.com, said Thursday he expects gas prices to start falling in the next couple of days.
On Tuesday, DeHaan told the News-Journal he thought gas prices would likely rise another 25 cents before leveling off later in the month.
DeHaan on Thursday said he has changed his prediction because of the steep decline in crude prices this week, which he attributed to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, combined with news of the unexpected rise in unemployment applications nationally.
Also likely contributing to the decrease in crude prices: the Energy Information Administration's announcement Wednesday of a greater-than-expected increase in U.S. crude supplies, and MasterCard Spending Pulse's report that American drivers are buying less fuel.
"The market is getting scary. Investors are getting out," DeHaan said. "They are getting worried about staying in the market too long."
Cameron Hanover analyst Peter Beutel said of the unemployment claims report, when people lose jobs, "you're killing the best part of that demand -- the part that will always be there as long as someone has a job."
Oil rose 35 percent from mid-February through the end of April. Thursday's sell-off was the biggest one-day percentage decline since April 20, 2009, when a barrel of oil cost less than half as much as it does now.
Analysts said the lack of any terrorist retaliation of the killing of Osama bin Laden eased concerns about the safety of the world's oil fields.
Oil has joined other commodities like silver and cotton in retreat this week. This follows a months-long rally in commodities that was partly driven by lower U.S. interest rates and a weak dollar.
Other energy futures fell sharply as well. Heating oil fell 17.79 cents to $2.9651 per 1 gallon (3.79 liters) and gasoline futures lost 15.64 cents to $3.1661 per gallon. Natural gas gave up 26.2 cents at $4.382 per 1,000 cubic feet (28.32 cubic meters).
In London, Brent crude fell $7.18 to $114.01 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

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