Thursday, May 5, 2011

Kentucky Derby Odds


The starting positions for the 137th Kentucky Derby were set earlier today and the ‘morning line’ odds for the race have been posted by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia.  Dialed In, who’ll start from post position 8, is the 4-1 morning line favorite just ahead of Uncle Mo at 9-2.  Illustrating the wide open nature of the 2011 race, only one other horse was assigned a single digit price–Nehro will break from the #19 hole on the far outside at 6-1.
Every other horse in the field is priced at double digits.  Archarcharch drew the dreaded #1 position along the rail and is a 10-1 choice.  Had he been assigned a more favorable post position he’d likely have been priced around 6-1.  Also at 10-1 is Midnight Interlude.  In the same basic price range at 12-1 is one time ‘trendy pick’ Soldat and the upset winner of the Florida Derby, Shackleford along with Mucho Macho Man.
Three horses have been installed at a price of 20-1.  The most intriguing of these is Sunland Derby winner Twice the Appeal who’ll be ridden by jockey Calvin Borel.  Borel is a master at Churchill Downs and has been aboard three of the last four Kentucky Derby winners and the last two back to back–Street Sense in 2007, Mine that Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010.  At this price, Borel’s uncanny mastery of the Churchill Downs track alone makes Twice the Appeal worth a look.  Also at 20-1 is Uncle Mo’s stablemate and training partner Stay Thirsty along with Pants on Fire.
Eight of the twenty horses in the 2011 Kentucky Derby field were assigned a morning line price of 30-1:  Brilliant Speed, Decisive Moment, Comma To The Top, Derby Kitten, Twinspired, Master of Hounds, Santiva and Animal Kingdom.  The Kentucky Derby betting longshot is Watch Me Go at 50-1.
History could be made if Watch Me Go or Mucho Macho Man are able to win the Kentucky Derby.  Watch Me Go is trained by Kathleen O’Connell and Mucho Macho Man by Kathy Ritvo.  Both are vying to become the first female trainers of a Kentucky Derby winner in the history of the race.  A victory by Ritvo would also be a great ‘comeback story’–she received a heart transplant in November 2008 after spending six months in a critical care facility waiting for a donor heart to become available.

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